* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/18/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 31 29 27 25 22 18 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 31 29 27 25 22 18 SHEAR (KTS) 11 9 3 6 2 4 1 4 9 11 12 9 11 SHEAR DIR 41 42 50 341 359 304 58 191 171 201 180 214 191 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.4 24.8 24.0 23.3 22.8 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 128 124 120 114 105 98 93 94 96 97 97 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 500-300 MB RH 53 55 51 43 36 32 27 25 21 20 17 19 14 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -4 -5 -4 -4 -1 1 4 1 -1 1 0 850 MB VORT 58 51 60 59 57 46 36 22 11 -7 -34 -34 -56 LAND (KM) 760 804 840 873 914 1016 1118 1228 1360 1526 1699 1807 1917 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.7 20.1 20.4 20.9 21.3 22.0 22.6 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.5 117.4 118.2 119.0 120.5 122.1 124.0 126.1 128.3 130.6 132.8 135.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 535 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 5 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -3. -7. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/18/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.72 SST (C) : Value: 26.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 103.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.67 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.13 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 26.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.23 Scaled RI index= 2.38 Prob of RI= 2.7% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)