* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/18/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 53 50 48 47 47 46 43 41 39 33 24 V (KT) LAND 60 57 53 50 48 47 47 46 43 41 39 33 24 SHEAR (KTS) 26 28 26 34 39 41 40 40 29 19 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 260 240 231 213 196 202 221 217 215 212 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 25.1 20.6 17.5 15.3 15.0 12.6 12.2 12.0 12.8 13.4 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 86 78 74 74 71 71 71 71 72 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -51.8 -50.4 -48.3 -47.9 -47.2 -46.3 -45.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 54 50 41 39 40 33 42 55 53 50 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 31 39 12 -3 -15 -17 -1 -11 1 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 62 87 98 121 190 211 160 136 147 139 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 714 534 501 653 934 1302 1473 1371 1250 1039 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.3 42.5 44.7 48.2 51.7 55.7 57.7 58.7 57.8 57.7 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.3 49.8 47.3 44.1 40.8 36.2 32.6 30.5 28.8 25.2 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 27 CX,CY: 21/ 17 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 684 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 53 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -22. -30. -37. -43. -50. -53. -55. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 2. 4. 8. 17. 25. 34. 40. 47. 51. 51. 47. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. -19. -21. -23. -26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -22. -26. -30. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -14. -17. -19. -26. -34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -13. -14. -17. -19. -21. -27. -36. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/18/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 30.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.30 SST (C) : Value: 18.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 24.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.31 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.29 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.30 Scaled RI index= 1.73 Prob of RI= 2.0% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)