* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/18/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 38 45 51 53 56 60 65 68 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 38 45 51 53 56 60 65 68 SHEAR (KTS) 16 12 10 12 14 8 9 10 12 14 14 8 5 SHEAR DIR 267 285 273 250 273 296 317 14 15 30 11 46 324 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 500-300 MB RH 46 51 55 55 54 61 52 51 47 53 49 49 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 0 0 0 0 1 4 4 -2 -6 6 1 -1 850 MB VORT -55 -54 -45 -48 -59 -49 -71 -56 -69 -36 -30 -15 2 LAND (KM) 724 603 485 372 287 284 351 335 392 457 454 483 318 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.4 19.1 19.7 21.0 21.7 22.5 23.3 24.0 24.6 25.5 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 58.9 60.0 61.1 62.3 63.4 65.4 67.0 68.7 70.5 72.2 73.5 75.1 76.9 HEAT CONTENT 74 84 84 74 77 61 47 62 42 58 57 66 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 659 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 11 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 33. 36. 40. 45. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 5. 7. 13. 20. 26. 28. 31. 35. 40. 43. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/18/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.83 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 138.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.43 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.12 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.27 Scaled RI index= 4.10 Prob of RI= 13.0% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)