* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/18/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 44 52 61 68 73 74 73 72 70 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 44 52 61 68 73 74 73 72 70 SHEAR (KTS) 16 16 17 12 4 6 6 3 6 10 8 9 3 SHEAR DIR 52 48 49 53 30 343 333 347 25 358 15 14 110 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.1 27.8 27.2 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 155 156 161 163 165 165 158 145 139 131 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 8 9 10 11 10 10 7 5 3 500-300 MB RH 81 81 75 75 74 68 71 68 70 64 64 58 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -3 2 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -3 -6 850 MB VORT 105 95 88 81 79 62 65 53 51 56 65 82 122 LAND (KM) 397 398 385 374 365 359 272 273 295 405 542 683 891 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.4 10.6 11.0 11.4 12.5 13.6 14.9 16.1 17.4 18.2 18.6 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 91.0 91.6 92.1 92.9 93.6 95.7 98.5 101.7 104.9 108.2 111.4 114.7 117.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 493 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 111 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 24. 30. 32. 33. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 30. 38. 44. 46. 46. 45. 44. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 19. 27. 36. 43. 48. 49. 48. 47. 45. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/18/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.28 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.57 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 85.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.90 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.55 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.55 Scaled RI index= 4.41 Prob of RI= 35.7% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)