* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/18/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 32 32 30 29 26 23 18 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 32 32 30 29 26 23 18 SHEAR (KTS) 8 9 8 5 4 1 6 5 12 12 18 13 14 SHEAR DIR 18 29 42 82 95 79 147 133 156 150 172 187 184 SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.5 24.8 24.3 23.6 23.2 23.3 23.3 23.5 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 127 124 121 114 108 101 97 98 98 100 101 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 500-300 MB RH 57 54 46 39 38 31 28 25 21 21 22 20 19 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 1 1 5 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 59 53 57 62 65 34 38 25 21 2 -10 -20 -24 LAND (KM) 807 828 858 895 937 1039 1166 1282 1433 1620 1818 1980 1911 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.6 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.6 21.1 21.5 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 117.0 117.8 118.5 119.2 120.7 122.3 124.3 126.5 128.9 131.4 134.0 136.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 540 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 32 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 1. -2. -7. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/18/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 26.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 102.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.67 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.15 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 6.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.60 Scaled RI index= 2.74 Prob of RI= 4.5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12.0%)