* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/18/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 57 56 57 57 54 46 40 37 32 24 DIS V (KT) LAND 60 58 57 56 57 57 54 46 40 37 32 24 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 35 33 41 44 43 25 22 7 43 41 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 226 207 197 205 195 206 250 296 310 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 19.3 15.3 15.1 12.9 10.7 11.5 10.6 7.7 11.1 13.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 82 74 74 71 70 70 70 68 70 72 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -52.2 -51.2 -51.1 -45.9 -44.3 -44.3 -53.4 -56.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 50 44 44 49 52 41 58 64 61 72 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 22 60 38 26 18 -3 -14 1 -37 -51 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 77 110 157 191 168 223 156 119 -59 -141 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 501 503 671 1026 1316 1388 1313 1122 583 411 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.3 46.5 49.6 54.0 58.3 61.9 61.9 59.7 54.2 49.7 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.9 46.4 43.9 40.4 36.9 35.0 36.7 41.9 47.2 47.6 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 35 CX,CY: 25/ 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 616 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 67 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -25. -33. -41. -47. -54. -57. -58. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 7. 12. 21. 29. 34. 40. 47. 51. 51. 47. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -10. -15. -17. -15. -17. -19. -20. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -24. -28. -32. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 14. 18. 18. 14. 15. 17. 17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -10. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -6. -13. -19. -22. -27. -35. -44. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -6. -14. -20. -23. -28. -36. -45. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/18/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 39.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.08 SST (C) : Value: 14.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 14.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.34 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.76 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 2.50 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)