* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/18/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 47 53 56 60 62 66 68 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 47 53 56 60 62 66 68 SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 16 15 12 8 10 8 14 13 16 13 13 SHEAR DIR 274 265 255 271 303 305 3 12 6 16 8 5 4 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 13 11 12 11 12 11 500-300 MB RH 49 54 52 54 59 57 51 49 53 54 54 52 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 1 1 -1 0 4 4 4 -2 -2 -2 1 5 850 MB VORT -54 -46 -49 -59 -49 -50 -56 -52 -55 -43 -37 -26 -7 LAND (KM) 624 501 383 287 230 300 337 326 357 410 440 436 448 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.4 19.9 21.2 22.1 22.6 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.6 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 59.8 61.0 62.1 63.2 64.3 66.2 67.9 69.4 70.6 71.7 72.6 73.9 75.4 HEAT CONTENT 80 86 75 80 75 50 58 58 43 53 60 59 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 598 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 8 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. -16. -16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 21. 28. 32. 36. 38. 42. 45. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 22. 28. 31. 35. 37. 41. 43. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/18/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.72 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 139.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.41 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.37 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 31.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.20 Scaled RI index= 4.25 Prob of RI= 14.8% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)