* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/18/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 44 55 65 74 79 80 78 78 77 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 44 55 65 74 79 80 78 78 77 SHEAR (KTS) 11 13 10 5 5 2 5 3 4 6 7 3 8 SHEAR DIR 32 42 40 20 6 344 29 72 58 53 350 53 79 SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.2 28.5 27.8 27.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 160 162 163 164 164 165 160 152 145 142 138 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -52.0 -52.7 -51.4 -52.1 -50.9 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 8 7 11 9 12 9 9 6 5 5 500-300 MB RH 80 72 74 72 71 68 71 68 69 69 63 64 71 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 -4 0 3 850 MB VORT 94 92 83 78 74 69 75 57 58 76 91 122 136 LAND (KM) 283 281 281 297 345 255 279 315 421 610 686 800 891 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.6 14.5 15.4 16.2 16.9 17.4 17.6 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 90.7 91.7 92.6 93.7 94.8 97.6 100.9 104.0 107.2 110.2 113.0 115.2 116.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 578 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 99 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 18. 25. 31. 33. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 24. 35. 45. 51. 53. 52. 52. 51. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 19. 30. 40. 49. 54. 55. 53. 53. 52. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/18/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.54 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.72 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 134.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 85.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.87 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.76 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.37 Scaled RI index= 4.88 Prob of RI= 56.4% is 4.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)