* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/19/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 45 56 66 74 78 77 77 77 76 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 45 56 66 74 78 77 77 77 76 SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 9 7 6 5 7 2 10 9 3 3 7 SHEAR DIR 21 13 13 8 7 54 41 73 55 54 70 39 104 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.3 27.7 27.3 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 162 162 162 163 164 162 156 150 144 140 133 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -51.8 -52.3 -51.4 -52.4 -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 10 9 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 500-300 MB RH 75 74 73 70 69 74 71 68 69 69 66 66 64 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 850 MB VORT 65 67 70 69 65 69 56 42 64 71 68 82 90 LAND (KM) 287 301 346 329 300 300 353 413 514 663 637 663 686 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.9 14.7 15.4 16.3 17.0 17.8 18.4 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 92.5 93.6 94.6 95.9 97.1 100.0 102.9 105.8 108.6 111.0 112.8 114.2 115.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 606 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 99 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 18. 25. 30. 33. 33. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 14. 24. 35. 44. 49. 50. 50. 51. 49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 15. 20. 31. 41. 49. 53. 52. 52. 52. 51. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/19/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.52 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.78 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 136.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 85.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.87 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.81 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.52 Scaled RI index= 5.13 Prob of RI= 65.8% is 5.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)