* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * EIGHT 08/19/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 45 57 68 75 78 77 77 76 75 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 45 57 68 75 78 77 77 76 75 SHEAR (KTS) 10 11 6 6 5 6 4 6 7 8 5 13 10 SHEAR DIR 1 357 11 14 12 73 113 94 74 90 92 119 129 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.4 28.7 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 162 154 146 143 140 136 132 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.0 -52.5 -51.7 -52.5 -51.6 -52.5 -51.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 11 10 9 13 9 9 7 6 5 5 4 500-300 MB RH 70 66 65 68 72 65 68 61 65 64 68 68 69 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 3 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 -3 -4 850 MB VORT 80 81 88 89 79 59 64 68 81 105 110 119 104 LAND (KM) 326 244 211 204 225 269 364 545 649 724 782 784 728 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.5 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 96.3 97.6 99.1 100.6 103.6 106.7 109.6 112.1 114.2 115.4 115.9 115.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 520 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 48 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 19. 26. 30. 32. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 25. 35. 44. 49. 50. 50. 50. 48. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 15. 20. 32. 43. 50. 53. 52. 52. 51. 50. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EIGHT 8/19/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.63 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.91 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 139.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.84 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.97 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 5.58 Prob of RI= 82.9% is 6.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)