* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/19/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 44 56 66 73 75 75 74 74 72 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 44 56 66 73 75 75 74 74 72 SHEAR (KTS) 10 11 6 6 5 6 3 5 7 7 4 13 10 SHEAR DIR 8 355 10 6 13 59 128 73 79 94 92 122 131 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.6 28.9 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 165 165 165 165 164 156 146 142 138 133 131 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.6 -51.6 -52.5 -51.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 11 9 9 13 10 10 7 6 5 5 4 500-300 MB RH 71 67 65 69 72 66 68 62 65 62 65 68 69 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 2 2 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 -4 -3 850 MB VORT 77 78 81 84 75 56 57 63 78 100 109 118 107 LAND (KM) 352 283 238 215 228 257 324 480 593 661 759 788 755 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.7 16.6 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.4 18.7 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 94.9 96.1 97.3 98.8 100.2 103.1 106.1 109.0 111.7 113.9 115.5 116.2 116.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 474 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 52 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 19. 26. 30. 32. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 24. 34. 43. 47. 48. 48. 47. 46. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 19. 31. 41. 48. 50. 50. 49. 49. 47. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/19/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.62 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.88 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 139.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.85 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.95 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.50 Scaled RI index= 5.42 Prob of RI= 76.9% is 6.4 times the sample mean(12.0%)