* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/19/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 45 52 58 64 69 74 76 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 45 52 58 64 69 74 76 SHEAR (KTS) 7 9 11 11 9 10 11 11 9 11 10 10 12 SHEAR DIR 313 276 305 352 4 9 23 15 35 17 50 42 78 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 164 164 164 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 15 15 14 13 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 13 13 500-300 MB RH 59 55 56 57 56 55 56 54 55 49 49 50 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 5 5 3 2 1 1 4 4 1 0 -1 -2 850 MB VORT -59 -71 -79 -65 -53 -67 -30 -24 -1 -8 -6 -11 -20 LAND (KM) 269 242 228 238 255 258 181 130 82 59 78 67 102 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.4 22.3 22.4 22.6 23.0 23.5 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 67.6 68.5 69.4 70.4 71.4 73.1 74.7 76.0 77.1 77.9 78.8 80.0 81.3 HEAT CONTENT 62 73 69 57 64 62 64 77 92 107 114 125 105 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 628 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -8 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 21. 28. 33. 39. 43. 47. 50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 27. 33. 39. 44. 49. 51. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/19/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.82 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 139.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.57 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.01 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 4.42 Prob of RI= 17.5% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)