* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * EIGHT 08/19/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 42 48 60 71 78 81 80 79 79 76 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 42 48 60 71 78 81 80 79 79 76 SHEAR (KTS) 15 13 9 7 7 9 10 14 15 10 9 3 1 SHEAR DIR 4 23 22 27 22 32 347 7 8 28 23 124 316 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.7 27.4 26.5 25.5 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 165 165 165 165 164 162 154 141 131 121 104 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 5 3 500-300 MB RH 72 70 70 74 70 70 71 73 70 71 72 67 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 -1 0 1 1 1 0 850 MB VORT 91 96 100 103 92 62 41 58 62 74 83 72 52 LAND (KM) 266 248 244 258 272 314 340 369 453 440 477 534 588 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.8 18.0 19.1 19.8 20.8 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 97.0 98.1 99.2 100.2 101.2 103.2 105.2 107.2 109.2 111.2 113.2 115.2 117.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 540 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 70 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 19. 26. 31. 33. 33. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 27. 38. 47. 51. 53. 52. 52. 49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 17. 23. 35. 46. 53. 56. 55. 54. 54. 51. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EIGHT 8/19/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.47 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.87 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 139.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.84 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.95 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.70 Scaled RI index= 5.45 Prob of RI= 77.9% is 6.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)