* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/20/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 46 53 60 66 70 74 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 46 53 60 66 70 74 74 SHEAR (KTS) 6 9 8 7 7 13 13 17 13 19 13 17 9 SHEAR DIR 274 295 354 22 16 32 13 18 4 17 12 25 41 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 164 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 15 15 14 14 14 13 13 12 13 12 13 12 13 500-300 MB RH 56 54 54 53 54 53 52 59 52 58 56 59 62 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 3 1 0 0 -4 -1 0 0 2 -2 0 -1 850 MB VORT -54 -68 -60 -48 -57 -49 -31 -15 1 2 1 -6 0 LAND (KM) 217 206 223 244 255 171 123 49 44 17 57 128 218 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.6 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.5 22.5 22.7 23.0 23.6 24.3 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 68.7 69.8 70.8 71.9 72.9 74.9 76.5 77.9 79.0 80.0 81.1 82.4 83.8 HEAT CONTENT 77 68 62 70 64 66 85 107 117 133 124 91 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 561 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -17 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 22. 28. 34. 39. 42. 45. 49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 21. 28. 35. 41. 45. 49. 49. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/20/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 138.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.56 Scaled RI index= 4.52 Prob of RI= 19.9% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)