* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * EIGHT 08/20/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 36 42 49 55 65 74 78 78 76 74 73 70 V (KT) LAND 30 36 42 49 55 65 74 78 78 76 74 73 70 SHEAR (KTS) 13 12 11 8 12 7 13 11 7 9 5 7 1 SHEAR DIR 17 24 37 35 49 60 15 6 34 344 14 352 184 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.3 27.3 26.8 26.4 25.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 161 162 163 161 157 150 140 135 130 123 114 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -51.9 -52.7 -51.7 -52.7 -51.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.8 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 11 10 9 7 7 7 7 5 4 500-300 MB RH 72 71 75 70 68 67 68 66 68 69 69 70 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 3 4 4 6 850 MB VORT 93 98 97 93 76 67 73 69 85 74 82 72 63 LAND (KM) 277 305 349 368 387 427 492 592 529 560 625 634 640 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.7 16.6 17.6 18.7 19.4 19.8 20.3 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 98.2 99.6 100.9 102.3 103.6 106.4 108.6 110.6 112.4 113.9 115.1 116.1 117.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 497 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 97 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 27. 27. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 19. 29. 37. 43. 45. 44. 43. 42. 39. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 12. 19. 25. 35. 44. 48. 48. 46. 44. 43. 40. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EIGHT 8/20/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.38 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.80 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 131.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.97 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.84 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.92 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 5.30 Prob of RI= 72.1% is 6.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)