* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/20/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 34 42 50 57 64 69 74 76 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 34 34 31 29 29 32 34 36 SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 8 9 11 13 12 10 10 12 9 12 8 SHEAR DIR 328 7 29 15 26 40 16 47 22 68 49 78 101 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.8 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 15 15 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 500-300 MB RH 57 53 53 53 50 53 53 54 50 51 50 50 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 3 1 0 -2 -2 1 2 3 0 0 -2 0 850 MB VORT -72 -75 -57 -60 -72 -39 -34 -15 -4 -5 -1 -10 -9 LAND (KM) 195 211 223 204 150 82 -16 -13 -2 -11 5 36 156 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 21.7 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.7 21.7 21.7 22.1 22.5 23.2 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 70.3 71.4 72.4 73.4 74.4 76.2 77.7 78.9 79.8 80.8 81.9 83.2 84.6 HEAT CONTENT 65 69 71 61 60 82 98 117 139 138 133 129 117 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 622 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -17 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 9. 14. 18. 23. 26. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 22. 29. 35. 40. 45. 50. 54. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 22. 30. 37. 44. 49. 54. 56. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/20/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.83 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 144.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.89 Scaled RI index= 4.83 Prob of RI= 30.5% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)