* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/20/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 48 54 59 69 77 80 80 77 75 73 68 V (KT) LAND 35 41 48 54 59 69 77 80 80 77 75 73 68 SHEAR (KTS) 15 13 13 13 13 10 13 13 10 12 8 6 1 SHEAR DIR 25 44 53 52 53 23 18 15 348 358 337 320 159 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.7 27.9 27.2 26.6 26.1 25.2 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 162 161 157 154 146 139 132 127 118 103 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 9 10 8 8 7 7 7 6 3 500-300 MB RH 74 75 73 72 73 67 68 69 71 72 71 65 60 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 9 3 850 MB VORT 111 105 94 82 79 75 77 78 84 78 79 82 60 LAND (KM) 321 366 410 427 451 491 586 607 591 624 632 633 652 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.7 16.6 17.7 18.7 19.5 20.0 20.7 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 99.8 101.2 102.5 103.9 105.3 107.6 109.7 111.8 113.5 114.8 115.6 116.6 117.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 459 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 90 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 23. 23. 23. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 22. 32. 39. 43. 44. 42. 40. 37. 33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 13. 19. 24. 34. 42. 45. 45. 42. 40. 38. 33. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/20/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.26 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.76 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 125.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.85 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.65 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.36 Scaled RI index= 4.72 Prob of RI= 48.8% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)