* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/20/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 33 41 50 57 65 69 73 74 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 33 29 40 47 41 39 47 48 SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 8 10 12 9 13 8 13 10 16 12 14 SHEAR DIR 6 28 27 27 23 26 25 28 42 63 64 102 85 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.9 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 15 15 15 14 14 14 13 13 12 13 12 13 13 500-300 MB RH 53 53 54 49 51 50 56 52 55 51 53 47 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 1 -1 -2 -5 -2 1 1 2 -1 -2 -3 0 850 MB VORT -79 -64 -67 -74 -60 -32 -24 -8 -8 1 -11 2 -23 LAND (KM) 200 201 197 130 73 7 -28 6 21 -19 -4 130 269 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.7 21.8 21.7 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.5 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.8 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 71.4 72.4 73.4 74.4 75.3 76.9 78.3 79.4 80.4 81.6 82.8 84.2 85.5 HEAT CONTENT 71 73 61 61 73 95 9999 124 139 136 122 121 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 630 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -31 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 9. 14. 18. 23. 26. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 21. 28. 33. 40. 44. 48. 52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 21. 30. 37. 45. 49. 53. 54. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/20/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.82 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.85 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 144.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.89 Scaled RI index= 4.81 Prob of RI= 30.0% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)