* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/20/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 59 68 75 81 89 93 93 90 85 81 76 71 V (KT) LAND 50 59 68 75 81 89 93 93 90 85 81 76 71 SHEAR (KTS) 10 11 11 12 8 13 13 12 12 11 9 6 5 SHEAR DIR 46 51 59 62 34 14 11 2 356 37 26 56 41 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.4 26.9 26.1 24.9 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 161 158 155 151 145 141 136 127 115 102 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.2 -51.6 -52.3 -52.6 -51.2 -52.0 -51.3 -52.5 -51.7 -52.6 -51.8 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 4 3 500-300 MB RH 75 74 75 75 72 72 73 71 77 72 73 64 56 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 1 0 -1 0 2 1 2 5 0 0 850 MB VORT 98 93 76 69 66 63 66 74 78 78 79 84 57 LAND (KM) 367 406 441 457 494 559 660 632 627 652 673 647 641 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.9 16.8 17.6 18.3 19.1 19.8 20.9 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 101.3 102.7 104.0 105.3 106.5 108.8 110.7 112.2 113.5 114.8 116.0 117.0 117.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 444 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 93 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 15. 15. 15. 13. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 22. 28. 36. 41. 42. 40. 36. 32. 27. 21. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 9. 18. 25. 31. 39. 43. 43. 40. 35. 31. 27. 21. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/20/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.75 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.45 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.75 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 110.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.74 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.85 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.92 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.60 Scaled RI index= 5.07 Prob of RI= 63.4% is 5.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)