* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/20/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 30 34 40 46 49 51 52 52 53 55 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 30 34 40 46 49 51 52 52 53 55 SHEAR (KTS) 5 5 8 11 10 9 11 17 16 16 16 14 6 SHEAR DIR 41 38 40 42 54 58 66 81 70 57 55 75 87 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 153 152 150 149 147 145 145 145 144 145 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 500-300 MB RH 38 40 38 38 37 39 36 35 37 37 37 35 33 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 6 1 0 3 0 1 850 MB VORT 3 0 0 0 0 1 -1 0 14 13 15 8 -5 LAND (KM) 1545 1455 1368 1289 1213 1075 948 876 867 938 1091 1289 1466 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.3 11.1 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.3 LONG(DEG W) 144.3 145.2 146.1 146.9 147.7 149.4 151.2 153.4 155.9 158.7 161.8 164.8 167.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 643 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 66 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 30. 30. 31. 33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. 33. 35. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/20/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.63 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.57 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 133.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.29 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.70 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 4.14 Prob of RI= 30.0% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)