* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/20/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 70 77 82 89 91 91 87 83 78 72 66 V (KT) LAND 55 63 70 77 82 89 91 91 87 83 78 72 66 SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 13 5 6 14 14 11 10 7 9 8 5 SHEAR DIR 43 52 57 54 44 8 353 343 353 17 30 28 84 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.6 27.9 27.4 27.0 26.2 25.0 23.9 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 160 157 153 146 141 137 128 116 104 95 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 500-300 MB RH 77 76 76 75 71 74 71 70 72 69 67 61 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 -5 0 1 8 9 3 0 -1 850 MB VORT 105 86 78 76 79 91 105 108 106 103 94 70 55 LAND (KM) 390 410 436 474 507 625 635 633 675 697 693 682 657 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.4 17.5 18.3 18.9 19.6 20.6 21.6 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.9 105.2 106.5 107.7 110.0 112.0 113.6 114.9 116.1 117.3 118.0 118.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 559 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 104 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 12. 12. 12. 10. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 19. 24. 31. 34. 35. 32. 28. 23. 17. 11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 8. 15. 22. 27. 34. 36. 36. 32. 28. 23. 17. 11. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/20/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.51 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.75 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 105.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.69 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.82 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.93 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.65 Scaled RI index= 5.26 Prob of RI= 70.7% is 5.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)