* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/21/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 32 38 43 47 49 50 50 52 54 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 32 38 43 47 49 50 50 52 54 SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 12 9 9 10 14 15 13 15 15 8 2 SHEAR DIR 36 40 43 56 64 53 71 77 67 57 62 79 115 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 152 150 148 146 144 144 144 142 142 142 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 500-300 MB RH 39 38 37 37 36 38 35 36 36 36 36 35 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT -3 -1 0 0 -2 0 -4 11 20 20 12 6 -12 LAND (KM) 1490 1394 1299 1215 1133 972 838 766 770 864 1033 1197 1356 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.8 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 144.8 145.8 146.7 147.6 148.5 150.3 152.2 154.4 157.0 159.7 162.6 165.4 168.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 633 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 59 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 30. 32. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 23. 27. 29. 30. 30. 32. 34. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/21/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.57 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.55 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 132.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.27 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.68 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 3.99 Prob of RI= 27.3% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)