* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/21/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 73 80 86 90 93 93 91 87 82 76 70 63 V (KT) LAND 65 73 80 86 90 93 93 91 87 82 76 70 63 SHEAR (KTS) 11 14 10 7 11 16 10 11 7 3 5 6 10 SHEAR DIR 52 46 47 47 24 16 359 350 59 38 50 22 112 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.5 26.7 25.8 24.6 23.5 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 158 156 154 150 145 142 133 124 112 100 92 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -50.7 -52.1 -50.8 -51.9 -50.6 -51.6 -50.8 -50.7 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 9 7 8 7 7 5 4 3 3 500-300 MB RH 77 76 76 73 71 72 75 73 77 77 69 61 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 5 9 15 8 0 2 0 850 MB VORT 82 70 69 74 81 88 104 121 133 119 97 83 65 LAND (KM) 420 451 501 546 613 734 696 732 788 758 695 704 724 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.6 16.4 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.7 21.0 22.0 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 105.3 106.6 107.9 109.2 111.3 113.0 114.7 116.2 117.2 117.7 118.5 119.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 520 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 112 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 22. 25. 25. 25. 21. 18. 12. 6. -2. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 8. 15. 21. 25. 28. 28. 27. 22. 17. 11. 5. -2. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/21/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 93.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.57 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.78 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.76 Scaled RI index= 5.15 Prob of RI= 66.6% is 5.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)