* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/21/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 29 34 37 43 49 52 54 56 56 58 58 V (KT) LAND 20 24 29 34 37 43 49 52 54 56 56 58 58 SHEAR (KTS) 6 9 9 9 11 8 11 12 9 1 5 7 12 SHEAR DIR 5 30 50 67 67 65 73 58 55 15 317 280 266 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 150 150 147 144 144 143 140 140 143 146 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 500-300 MB RH 41 38 38 36 37 32 33 32 30 26 25 27 31 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -2 -3 -4 -7 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT -6 -9 -8 -7 -4 0 15 26 18 10 -10 -24 -31 LAND (KM) 1353 1268 1186 1113 1037 878 755 720 813 1034 1194 1441 1731 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.5 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 146.3 147.2 148.1 148.9 149.7 151.6 153.9 156.7 159.8 163.4 167.0 170.7 174.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 574 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 90 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 26. 29. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 21. 26. 30. 33. 34. 36. 36. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 17. 23. 29. 33. 34. 36. 36. 38. 38. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/21/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.55 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 131.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.97 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.13 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.74 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.62 Scaled RI index= 4.15 Prob of RI= 30.2% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)