* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/21/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 79 83 85 86 86 85 81 77 71 66 60 V (KT) LAND 70 75 79 83 85 86 86 85 81 77 71 66 60 SHEAR (KTS) 16 14 10 10 10 10 6 7 9 9 3 2 4 SHEAR DIR 37 43 52 32 15 5 10 47 88 18 55 86 261 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.1 24.3 23.0 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 156 154 152 147 143 140 136 127 108 95 88 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -50.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -50.8 -51.3 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 500-300 MB RH 77 74 73 73 73 70 75 77 81 73 71 60 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 1 -3 3 0 3 0 3 850 MB VORT 63 61 63 74 77 112 129 140 137 128 83 63 37 LAND (KM) 428 478 536 587 665 701 712 729 745 721 707 706 671 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.5 15.8 17.0 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.6 21.2 22.4 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.7 106.1 107.4 108.7 110.0 112.4 114.0 114.9 115.6 116.5 118.0 118.9 119.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 545 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 88 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 20. 19. 16. 11. 5. -1. -7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 11. 7. 1. -4. -10. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/21/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.36 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.66 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 86.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.50 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.80 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.84 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.44 Scaled RI index= 4.50 Prob of RI= 38.1% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)