* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/21/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 32 36 42 49 53 57 59 61 63 64 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 32 36 42 49 53 57 59 61 63 64 SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 10 10 10 13 10 9 7 2 6 9 11 SHEAR DIR 30 37 76 71 74 78 97 78 85 290 287 272 265 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 151 149 146 145 145 145 145 146 148 150 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 500-300 MB RH 41 38 40 37 39 35 34 33 32 30 30 34 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -2 -1 -5 -3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 850 MB VORT -6 -6 -6 -3 0 9 18 24 25 13 -4 -7 -15 LAND (KM) 1211 1136 1063 1007 959 874 898 1049 1297 1492 1737 2006 2275 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.9 11.3 11.6 12.1 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 148.0 149.0 150.0 151.0 152.0 154.5 157.4 160.8 164.5 168.3 172.0 175.6 178.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 503 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 64 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 27. 32. 36. 38. 41. 42. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 23. 29. 33. 37. 39. 41. 43. 44. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/21/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.54 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.50 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 131.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.96 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.10 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.62 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.50 Scaled RI index= 3.85 Prob of RI= 24.9% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)