* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/21/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 76 79 81 83 83 81 78 71 64 59 54 V (KT) LAND 70 73 76 79 81 83 83 81 78 71 64 59 54 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 12 10 12 8 8 4 4 14 12 7 5 SHEAR DIR 42 20 20 16 8 19 4 129 89 83 95 123 358 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.4 27.8 27.3 26.6 25.7 24.9 24.1 23.2 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 157 154 151 145 140 132 123 115 106 97 90 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.0 -51.2 -52.0 -52.4 -51.1 -51.9 -50.7 -51.8 -50.9 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 3 2 500-300 MB RH 74 70 71 71 70 68 74 72 69 65 59 46 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -2 -1 -3 -2 4 2 1 -2 -6 -5 5 -1 850 MB VORT 45 54 61 60 66 91 108 112 105 83 55 43 28 LAND (KM) 401 450 499 570 651 657 691 734 721 724 711 739 733 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.6 18.4 19.1 19.9 20.6 21.4 22.1 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.9 108.1 109.4 110.6 112.8 114.6 115.9 116.9 117.7 118.2 119.0 119.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 597 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 96 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 14. 11. 4. -3. -9. -14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 11. 8. 1. -6. -11. -16. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/21/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.39 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.66 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 86.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.50 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.72 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.81 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.56 Scaled RI index= 4.42 Prob of RI= 35.9% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)