* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/21/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 38 44 50 56 60 63 65 64 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 38 44 50 56 60 63 65 64 SHEAR (KTS) 9 14 13 13 13 16 11 5 4 7 11 12 14 SHEAR DIR 57 70 80 71 84 89 96 121 224 267 276 285 277 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 149 147 146 147 147 148 148 149 150 149 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 500-300 MB RH 45 44 41 41 38 38 34 30 31 32 38 47 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -3 -2 -1 -1 2 0 0 0 0 -1 0 2 850 MB VORT 7 5 4 4 12 9 12 11 11 8 -1 -10 -29 LAND (KM) 1159 1095 1039 998 970 972 1097 1311 1570 1820 2125 2444 2244 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.2 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.3 10.5 LONG(DEG W) 149.8 150.8 151.8 152.9 154.0 156.6 159.8 163.4 167.3 171.3 175.3 179.2 177.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 439 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 20. 27. 33. 36. 39. 41. 43. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 24. 30. 36. 40. 43. 45. 44. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/21/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.33 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.48 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.95 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.14 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.05 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.28 Scaled RI index= 2.87 Prob of RI= 6.8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)