* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/21/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 84 87 88 89 88 83 76 69 62 57 50 V (KT) LAND 75 79 84 87 88 89 88 83 76 69 62 57 50 SHEAR (KTS) 13 12 10 11 13 6 7 4 7 4 6 2 8 SHEAR DIR 44 27 25 17 17 22 29 126 97 67 60 48 327 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.2 27.6 27.1 26.4 25.7 24.9 24.2 23.4 22.6 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 154 149 143 138 130 123 115 107 99 91 84 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 2 0 500-300 MB RH 71 73 70 69 68 74 73 71 66 61 54 43 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -2 -5 -3 -3 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 -2 850 MB VORT 66 73 70 71 89 109 110 110 97 78 56 37 23 LAND (KM) 397 454 532 577 558 594 655 662 685 732 806 808 798 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.2 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.5 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.1 108.4 109.6 110.8 111.9 113.8 115.3 116.4 117.3 118.3 119.5 120.5 121.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 547 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 108 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 9. 6. 1. -6. -13. -18. -25. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 12. 13. 14. 13. 8. 1. -6. -13. -18. -25. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/21/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.35 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.55 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 78.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.41 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.73 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 9.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.84 Scaled RI index= 4.68 Prob of RI= 46.6% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)