* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/22/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 40 49 56 62 68 72 76 78 81 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 40 49 56 62 68 72 76 78 81 SHEAR (KTS) 19 16 12 4 4 8 7 10 8 9 9 11 5 SHEAR DIR 22 20 20 39 6 320 297 286 295 302 275 298 281 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.6 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 141 137 133 126 124 123 125 129 132 134 137 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 500-300 MB RH 69 66 63 64 68 64 67 60 63 63 61 59 57 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -1 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 850 MB VORT 83 80 72 74 82 68 59 58 67 66 73 73 79 LAND (KM) 1025 1124 1227 1339 1453 1728 2008 2013 1938 1870 1846 1814 1775 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.4 13.9 14.3 15.3 16.3 17.2 18.1 18.8 19.6 20.2 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 26.7 27.8 28.8 29.9 31.0 33.6 36.2 38.6 40.8 42.7 44.4 46.3 48.3 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 13 11 7 5 3 4 8 15 20 25 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 469 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 77 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 16. 18. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 29. 36. 42. 48. 52. 55. 58. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 24. 31. 37. 43. 47. 51. 53. 56. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/22/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.57 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 114.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.80 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 85.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.92 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.37 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.73 Scaled RI index= 4.89 Prob of RI= 32.9% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)