* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/22/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 46 54 60 64 66 66 64 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 46 54 60 64 66 66 64 SHEAR (KTS) 6 5 8 9 7 6 2 4 9 12 16 15 17 SHEAR DIR 68 41 9 39 54 117 159 256 272 262 275 283 279 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 147 145 144 144 144 143 142 144 147 148 149 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 500-300 MB RH 33 34 30 33 32 33 32 34 33 37 36 42 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -1 -3 -2 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 850 MB VORT 0 -4 -7 -1 0 7 3 5 -11 -15 -25 -30 -18 LAND (KM) 983 920 864 820 791 796 935 1172 1346 1576 1829 2061 2284 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 150.9 151.9 152.8 153.9 155.0 157.6 160.6 164.1 167.7 171.3 174.6 177.4 180.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 508 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 17 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 20. 24. 27. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 15. 22. 30. 35. 38. 39. 41. 42. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 26. 34. 40. 44. 46. 46. 44. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/22/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.65 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.38 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 126.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.92 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 3.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 3.05 Prob of RI= 10.1% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)