* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/22/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 97 101 103 103 99 92 84 74 64 56 49 43 V (KT) LAND 90 97 101 103 103 99 92 84 74 64 56 49 43 SHEAR (KTS) 9 12 11 11 8 3 6 4 9 3 7 2 3 SHEAR DIR 22 36 38 35 49 34 103 134 143 125 88 354 84 SST (C) 29.1 28.6 28.0 27.3 26.9 26.2 25.5 24.7 23.9 23.2 22.6 22.0 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 153 147 140 136 128 121 113 104 97 91 84 80 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 -52.0 -51.0 -52.2 -51.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 0 0 500-300 MB RH 71 72 70 69 65 65 64 56 54 53 47 36 30 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -3 -1 0 0 1 -3 1 2 1 -1 0 0 850 MB VORT 77 78 77 88 88 91 99 92 82 70 46 26 22 LAND (KM) 428 496 516 505 534 606 601 632 690 752 757 798 879 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.2 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.7 23.4 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.6 110.7 112.0 113.3 115.1 116.0 117.0 118.1 119.2 120.0 121.3 122.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 545 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 109 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -10. -17. -24. -29. -33. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 13. 13. 10. 4. -3. -14. -23. -32. -39. -45. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 11. 13. 13. 9. 2. -6. -16. -26. -34. -41. -47. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/22/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.75 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.47 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.38 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 56.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.19 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.68 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.97 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.72 Scaled RI index= 4.16 Prob of RI= 30.6% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)