* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/22/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 30 37 45 53 58 64 71 74 75 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 34 33 36 SHEAR (KTS) 11 13 12 10 9 11 5 5 4 4 1 6 5 SHEAR DIR 351 19 44 56 46 79 92 86 129 124 15 312 318 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 30.0 29.7 28.1 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 164 164 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 143 110 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 14 16 13 14 12 12 12 13 10 9 5 500-300 MB RH 71 70 61 61 61 60 63 62 61 56 59 55 66 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 3 4 5 4 5 4 0 0 -3 0 2 4 850 MB VORT -39 -33 -31 -9 5 11 38 19 37 22 39 15 0 LAND (KM) 44 74 42 30 -19 -120 -233 -304 -259 -60 97 0 51 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.9 22.6 23.4 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 93.4 94.2 94.9 95.6 96.3 97.6 99.1 100.8 102.7 104.9 107.1 109.5 111.9 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 25 20 21 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 720 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 26 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 13. 17. 22. 25. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 15. 23. 32. 38. 45. 52. 56. 57. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 6. 10. 17. 25. 33. 38. 44. 51. 54. 55. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/22/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 144.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.75 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.33 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.58 Scaled RI index= 4.99 Prob of RI= 36.3% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)