* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/22/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 38 47 55 61 65 68 67 64 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 38 47 55 61 65 68 67 64 SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 8 8 4 4 6 10 10 14 16 18 21 SHEAR DIR 47 5 14 33 94 127 217 250 256 269 281 285 267 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 145 143 142 142 142 142 142 145 147 149 151 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 500-300 MB RH 34 31 29 29 32 34 32 34 31 31 33 34 29 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -3 -5 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 850 MB VORT -9 -9 -8 -8 1 9 7 2 -12 -24 -37 -43 -38 LAND (KM) 923 857 801 770 756 804 958 1137 1288 1498 1712 1928 2141 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.6 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.7 15.1 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 151.9 152.9 153.8 154.9 156.0 158.7 161.8 165.0 168.2 171.3 174.1 176.6 179.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 597 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 4 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 40. 41. 41. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 18. 27. 35. 41. 45. 48. 47. 44. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/22/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.32 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 125.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.78 Scaled RI index= 3.34 Prob of RI= 15.4% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)