* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/22/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 92 90 88 81 73 66 58 51 45 40 36 V (KT) LAND 90 92 92 90 88 81 73 66 58 51 45 40 36 SHEAR (KTS) 14 16 15 12 10 9 7 6 8 4 3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 33 38 40 52 55 58 112 100 140 94 145 232 256 SST (C) 28.5 27.8 27.2 26.9 26.6 25.9 25.0 24.3 23.6 23.0 22.4 22.0 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 145 139 136 132 125 116 108 101 95 89 84 82 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 73 71 71 67 67 64 61 52 49 47 40 34 31 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -4 -4 -1 0 0 0 -2 -5 -4 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 79 83 98 100 103 101 116 101 88 66 46 35 25 LAND (KM) 536 520 509 540 593 645 693 753 803 837 879 964 1091 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 111.2 112.4 113.5 114.5 116.0 117.3 118.4 119.3 120.3 121.5 123.0 124.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 512 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 64 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -14. -21. -27. -32. -36. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -20. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 3. -1. -8. -16. -25. -32. -39. -45. -50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 2. 0. -2. -9. -17. -24. -32. -38. -44. -50. -54. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/22/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.25 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.21 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 50.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.13 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.58 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.82 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.49 Scaled RI index= 3.38 Prob of RI= 16.2% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)