* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/22/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 34 41 50 58 63 69 73 74 75 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 25 26 26 27 27 27 31 35 37 37 SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 10 9 8 5 4 5 4 6 8 8 N/A SHEAR DIR 1 33 55 44 51 86 84 142 172 172 243 237 9999 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 28.9 26.3 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 160 162 164 165 165 165 165 155 122 96 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 13 15 13 12 14 10 15 10 15 8 9 N/A 500-300 MB RH 72 67 65 66 65 61 61 61 57 59 58 52 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 4 4 4 1 3 0 0 0 -1 1 0 N/A 850 MB VORT -33 -28 -11 4 6 21 34 40 44 32 27 24 N/A LAND (KM) 76 57 31 -18 -69 -169 -289 -311 -146 37 112 65 179 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.5 19.6 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.3 22.0 22.6 23.4 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 94.4 95.1 95.8 96.5 97.1 98.4 100.0 101.8 103.8 106.0 108.6 111.2 113.9 HEAT CONTENT 30 27 24 25 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 679 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 29 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 18. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 25. 35. 42. 49. 54. 56. 57. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 10. 14. 21. 30. 38. 43. 49. 53. 54. 55. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/22/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.84 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.72 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.93 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.85 Scaled RI index= 5.86 Prob of RI= 65.4% is 5.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)