* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/22/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 45 54 63 70 78 83 87 88 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 45 54 63 70 78 83 87 88 SHEAR (KTS) 8 3 3 4 7 3 4 10 10 4 10 14 10 SHEAR DIR 355 35 273 273 299 299 274 256 279 213 237 228 238 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 125 126 128 132 134 135 137 137 139 141 146 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 500-300 MB RH 49 48 51 53 52 53 52 52 54 53 50 47 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 850 MB VORT 107 105 103 88 67 67 70 60 57 66 65 50 14 LAND (KM) 1495 1629 1764 1908 2052 1928 1787 1692 1617 1613 1623 1665 1643 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.3 17.6 18.2 18.9 20.1 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 31.4 32.7 33.9 35.3 36.6 39.2 41.5 43.4 45.1 46.3 47.6 48.8 50.4 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 3 3 6 17 28 33 32 33 40 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 512 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 37 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 21. 31. 39. 47. 55. 59. 63. 65. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 29. 38. 45. 53. 58. 62. 63. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/22/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.94 SST (C) : Value: 26.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.39 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 101.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.68 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.87 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.64 Scaled RI index= 4.23 Prob of RI= 14.5% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)