* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/22/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 29 33 40 48 56 60 66 70 72 72 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 25 26 26 27 27 27 31 35 37 37 SHEAR (KTS) 10 12 10 7 10 7 5 7 7 6 4 2 9 SHEAR DIR 11 39 64 51 55 102 86 114 148 149 245 263 297 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 28.9 26.3 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 160 162 164 165 165 165 165 155 122 96 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.0 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 14 15 13 12 15 10 14 10 14 7 9 3 500-300 MB RH 71 63 60 63 61 59 59 60 56 57 59 54 57 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 2 4 3 4 4 1 0 0 -2 0 1 10 850 MB VORT -29 -33 -17 4 0 20 31 30 39 33 24 14 14 LAND (KM) 76 57 31 -18 -69 -169 -289 -311 -146 37 112 65 179 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.5 19.6 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.3 22.0 22.6 23.4 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 94.4 95.1 95.8 96.5 97.1 98.4 100.0 101.8 103.8 106.0 108.6 111.2 113.9 HEAT CONTENT 32 28 23 23 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 658 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 23 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 24. 32. 39. 46. 51. 54. 54. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 9. 13. 20. 28. 36. 40. 46. 50. 52. 52. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/22/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.81 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.74 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.93 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.85 Scaled RI index= 5.84 Prob of RI= 65.0% is 5.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)