* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/22/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 38 48 56 63 68 72 72 70 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 38 48 56 63 68 72 72 70 SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 7 6 9 6 7 13 14 14 14 18 N/A SHEAR DIR 21 13 54 114 129 142 227 253 269 282 298 302 9999 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 144 143 144 146 147 148 150 152 150 148 147 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 N/A 500-300 MB RH 30 30 32 33 38 38 40 44 49 51 49 41 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 -3 0 -1 2 4 9 N/A 850 MB VORT -11 -2 2 10 8 10 2 -3 9 16 -33 -38 N/A LAND (KM) 872 829 811 851 919 1160 1445 1709 2051 2428 2134 1815 1540 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.5 11.3 10.9 10.7 10.8 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.2 LONG(DEG W) 153.2 154.6 155.9 157.5 159.0 162.6 166.6 170.8 175.1 179.5 176.3 172.5 168.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 572 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -37 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 22. 30. 36. 40. 43. 45. 46. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 7. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 18. 28. 36. 43. 48. 52. 52. 50. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/22/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.31 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 124.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.89 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.02 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 6.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.99 Scaled RI index= 3.53 Prob of RI= 18.8% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)