* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/22/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 88 87 85 78 71 63 55 48 43 40 37 V (KT) LAND 90 89 88 87 85 78 71 63 55 48 43 40 37 SHEAR (KTS) 11 14 10 8 9 9 3 7 2 2 5 2 4 SHEAR DIR 28 33 57 57 68 86 76 89 20 60 353 76 322 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.4 25.4 24.6 23.9 23.2 22.7 22.4 22.1 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 138 135 130 120 112 104 97 92 89 86 84 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -50.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -51.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 500-300 MB RH 69 66 68 67 71 60 59 50 51 48 41 38 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) -6 -5 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 90 101 106 109 106 112 114 110 101 83 60 58 62 LAND (KM) 523 530 568 617 646 693 775 847 882 932 1016 1160 1326 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.7 22.9 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.7 113.9 114.8 115.7 117.1 118.5 119.6 120.6 121.9 123.4 125.2 127.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 429 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 59 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -17. -24. -30. -35. -39. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -18. -20. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -24. -32. -38. -44. -48. -51. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -19. -27. -35. -42. -47. -50. -53. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/22/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.46 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.10 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 47.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.09 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.53 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.95 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.70 Scaled RI index= 3.45 Prob of RI= 17.5% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)