* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/22/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 42 51 60 65 72 75 78 80 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 42 51 60 65 72 75 78 80 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 6 8 8 11 12 9 11 7 12 8 N/A SHEAR DIR 338 320 352 28 49 68 88 68 90 54 70 51 9999 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -53.8 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 N/A 500-300 MB RH 53 56 53 56 53 45 45 43 43 40 42 45 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 2 2 2 1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 N/A 850 MB VORT -25 -22 -19 -11 -9 -24 -27 -36 -27 -20 8 14 N/A LAND (KM) 122 129 104 94 106 79 78 77 80 108 137 200 185 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.7 23.3 23.7 23.9 23.8 23.6 23.3 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.8 74.5 75.3 76.1 77.7 79.3 80.8 82.2 83.5 84.8 86.0 87.2 HEAT CONTENT 73 62 64 73 81 100 115 122 118 125 118 115 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 562 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 2 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 9. 14. 18. 23. 26. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 27. 35. 40. 47. 50. 55. 58. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 31. 40. 45. 52. 55. 58. 60. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/22/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.90 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.88 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 145.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.51 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.37 Scaled RI index= 4.96 Prob of RI= 35.2% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)