* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ELEVEN 08/22/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 36 41 46 52 61 69 77 83 87 89 90 92 V (KT) LAND 30 36 32 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 9 9 9 5 4 1 1 5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 37 57 48 66 76 65 84 141 259 286 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 160 162 164 165 165 165 165 165 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 15 13 12 14 12 12 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 66 63 66 66 62 62 61 66 66 62 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 4 3 1 3 1 1 2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -25 -10 4 5 9 31 35 59 54 49 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 93 24 -45 -104 -164 -297 -294 -300 -299 -262 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.3 96.1 96.9 97.7 98.4 99.9 100.6 101.2 102.1 102.7 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 32 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 642 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 20 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 27. 35. 44. 52. 57. 60. 62. 64. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 16. 22. 31. 39. 47. 53. 57. 59. 60. 62. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ELEVEN 8/22/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.83 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 131.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.96 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.87 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.86 Scaled RI index= 5.93 Prob of RI= 67.8% is 5.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)