* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/22/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 56 62 66 69 72 74 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 56 62 66 69 72 74 SHEAR (KTS) 3 4 4 7 9 9 9 12 14 19 19 19 N/A SHEAR DIR 359 323 316 304 293 283 273 258 263 245 249 251 9999 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.5 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 125 126 127 129 132 133 133 133 135 143 146 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.0 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 N/A 500-300 MB RH 48 48 51 49 46 51 48 55 51 55 54 56 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -1 -2 7 0 3 N/A 850 MB VORT 102 95 74 61 53 65 59 66 58 54 21 -1 N/A LAND (KM) 1613 1737 1861 1996 2111 2004 1935 1874 1863 1869 1922 1879 1851 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.7 18.3 18.7 19.5 20.3 21.7 23.6 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 32.5 33.7 34.8 36.1 37.3 39.3 41.1 42.5 43.9 45.3 47.0 48.5 49.7 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 6 9 13 15 19 24 23 24 30 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 558 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 21 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 9. 11. 14. 17. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 25. 33. 38. 43. 45. 48. 51. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 31. 37. 41. 44. 47. 49. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/22/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.93 SST (C) : Value: 26.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.39 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 100.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.67 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.86 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.06 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 4.09 Prob of RI= 12.8% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)