* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/22/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 33 42 51 58 63 65 65 64 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 26 33 42 51 58 63 65 65 64 SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 10 8 8 6 1 5 10 14 22 24 N/A SHEAR DIR 39 42 55 67 73 86 323 288 273 273 285 282 9999 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 146 145 143 143 143 144 146 149 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 N/A 500-300 MB RH 29 29 37 37 38 37 37 35 37 41 40 38 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -4 0 0 N/A 850 MB VORT -15 -13 -6 7 17 16 7 -11 -21 -28 -38 -37 N/A LAND (KM) 1037 954 883 836 814 833 986 1192 1388 1625 1886 2142 2068 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.5 14.1 14.9 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 149.7 150.9 152.1 153.5 154.9 158.1 161.7 165.3 168.9 172.3 175.6 178.7 178.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 653 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -44 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 20. 28. 35. 38. 40. 41. 42. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 6. 13. 22. 31. 38. 43. 45. 45. 44. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/22/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.54 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.38 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 126.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.92 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.03 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 17.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.21 Scaled RI index= 2.70 Prob of RI= 3.6% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)