* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/22/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 81 78 75 69 61 53 46 40 35 32 31 V (KT) LAND 85 83 81 78 75 69 61 53 46 40 35 32 31 SHEAR (KTS) 15 12 11 11 11 8 12 8 7 8 7 7 N/A SHEAR DIR 38 50 52 73 91 112 75 106 45 78 59 73 9999 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.3 25.6 24.7 24.0 23.4 22.9 22.4 22.1 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 137 133 129 122 113 105 99 94 89 86 91 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -50.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 2 N/A 500-300 MB RH 70 67 67 67 63 63 56 53 43 39 32 25 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 850 MB VORT 106 111 114 112 120 129 116 113 103 93 78 78 N/A LAND (KM) 544 567 614 662 685 739 811 890 956 1023 1134 1310 1549 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.6 19.8 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.8 22.3 22.6 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 112.3 113.4 114.5 115.4 116.2 117.4 118.7 119.9 121.2 122.7 124.5 126.7 129.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 437 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 54 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -20. -26. -31. -34. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -15. -21. -29. -36. -42. -47. -51. -53. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -24. -32. -39. -45. -50. -53. -54. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/22/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.33 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.08 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 51.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.13 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.81 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.68 Scaled RI index= 2.99 Prob of RI= 9.0% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)