* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEN 08/23/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 39 49 57 63 69 73 77 78 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 39 49 57 63 69 73 77 78 SHEAR (KTS) 7 9 8 7 7 15 7 12 5 13 10 14 12 SHEAR DIR 327 8 33 46 50 65 97 68 72 57 76 64 81 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.3 30.5 30.5 30.3 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 15 15 14 14 15 13 14 13 14 13 14 12 14 500-300 MB RH 54 53 56 55 47 48 45 47 45 44 44 46 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 4 4 2 0 -1 -3 0 0 2 4 3 0 850 MB VORT -15 -20 -21 -15 -27 -36 -35 -40 -27 -16 0 5 22 LAND (KM) 147 120 108 123 112 103 100 113 175 199 233 271 247 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.3 22.6 23.2 23.9 24.3 24.5 24.4 24.2 23.9 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 73.5 74.4 75.2 76.1 76.9 78.6 80.3 81.8 83.1 84.4 85.5 86.5 87.6 HEAT CONTENT 63 63 70 80 88 107 122 97 92 82 106 120 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 571 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -2 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 9. 14. 18. 23. 26. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 26. 34. 40. 46. 49. 54. 57. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 29. 37. 43. 49. 53. 57. 58. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEN 8/23/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.89 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 145.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.01 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.51 Scaled RI index= 4.58 Prob of RI= 21.5% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)