* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * JOSE 08/23/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 53 59 65 71 81 90 97 102 102 102 101 101 V (KT) LAND 45 53 49 42 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 8 9 8 9 5 4 4 2 5 8 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 54 34 64 90 92 5 71 345 293 330 359 9999 9999 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 162 164 164 164 165 165 165 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.1 -52.8 -52.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 12 14 16 11 15 9 15 10 16 N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 62 64 63 62 58 61 60 62 53 53 50 N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 2 1 5 5 7 6 2 0 2 1 N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -4 7 7 21 27 36 62 60 20 -4 -36 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 63 28 -7 -53 -100 -165 -234 -240 -246 -288 -297 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.8 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.8 21.3 21.7 22.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.7 96.2 96.6 97.2 97.7 98.6 99.5 99.8 100.1 100.6 100.8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 35 32 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 654 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 34 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 8. 5. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 19. 25. 35. 44. 52. 58. 58. 58. 58. 58. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 8. 14. 20. 26. 36. 45. 53. 57. 57. 57. 56. 56. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOSE 8/23/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.30 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 117.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.82 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.69 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.60 Scaled RI index= 4.79 Prob of RI= 28.9% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)