* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/23/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 45 53 59 63 67 70 70 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 45 53 59 63 67 70 70 SHEAR (KTS) 9 8 9 10 9 10 7 11 11 14 16 18 22 SHEAR DIR 337 335 325 320 314 296 261 276 260 261 237 244 241 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 28.0 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 126 127 129 132 134 134 134 135 142 149 152 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 500-300 MB RH 47 48 48 44 49 50 53 56 55 52 54 47 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -1 0 -2 -2 0 2 1 3 4 7 10 850 MB VORT 101 78 62 53 57 52 61 51 50 30 21 -22 -56 LAND (KM) 1732 1877 2023 2092 2022 1905 1819 1771 1766 1777 1769 1660 1595 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.4 20.3 21.8 23.5 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 33.6 35.0 36.3 37.5 38.7 40.9 42.8 44.2 45.6 47.3 49.0 50.7 52.2 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 6 9 11 15 24 26 22 29 33 34 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 655 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 5 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 22. 30. 35. 40. 43. 46. 47. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 20. 28. 34. 38. 42. 45. 45. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/23/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.84 SST (C) : Value: 26.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.40 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 101.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.68 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.86 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 4.10 Prob of RI= 12.9% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)