* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/23/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 34 43 52 58 63 66 66 65 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 34 43 52 58 63 66 66 65 SHEAR (KTS) 10 11 10 11 11 4 2 4 8 13 13 17 21 SHEAR DIR 46 54 57 63 77 92 345 320 305 302 297 283 264 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 145 144 144 144 144 145 147 150 151 150 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 500-300 MB RH 29 35 34 35 35 36 37 38 38 39 38 40 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -1 -3 0 850 MB VORT -16 -11 -1 12 5 7 6 -2 -18 -35 -45 -32 -42 LAND (KM) 981 913 861 833 835 927 1119 1322 1527 1760 2009 2244 2079 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.4 12.9 13.4 14.0 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 150.6 151.9 153.2 154.7 156.2 159.6 163.1 166.6 170.1 173.4 176.5 179.3 178.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 658 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -20 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 20. 29. 35. 39. 42. 43. 44. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 23. 32. 38. 43. 46. 46. 45. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/23/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.36 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 126.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.91 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.05 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.05 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.13 Scaled RI index= 2.58 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)