* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * HILARY 08/23/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 73 70 67 61 53 46 40 35 31 29 28 V (KT) LAND 80 77 73 70 67 61 53 46 40 35 31 29 28 SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 11 11 12 10 11 4 10 6 8 3 3 SHEAR DIR 54 48 66 83 97 68 94 66 86 66 80 75 125 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.0 24.1 23.5 23.1 22.7 22.3 22.2 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 135 130 125 116 106 100 96 92 88 87 93 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -50.8 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 500-300 MB RH 64 69 66 64 58 61 51 48 40 34 27 26 20 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 850 MB VORT 118 110 104 107 111 107 96 92 88 75 71 57 70 LAND (KM) 554 598 657 670 690 747 831 914 979 1079 1215 1393 1624 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.5 21.0 21.4 21.6 21.9 22.1 22.4 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 113.2 114.2 115.2 116.0 116.7 117.9 119.3 120.7 121.9 123.5 125.3 127.5 130.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 540 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 60 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -14. -21. -26. -30. -33. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -10. -16. -23. -29. -36. -41. -46. -48. -50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -7. -10. -13. -19. -27. -34. -40. -45. -49. -51. -52. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HILARY 8/23/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.43 SST (C) : Value: 26.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 53.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.16 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.44 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.70 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.58 Scaled RI index= 2.62 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)